2024 Oro Valley Real Estate Forecasts

What does the balance of 2024 look like for the Oro Valley real estate market?

Barring the unforeseen, Oro Valley should likely continue with similar conditions as we have seen in the first half of the year including an undersupply of homes for sale, steady buyer demand, and steadily increasing home values.

Home Sale Prices Increase

Through June 2024, home sale prices in Oro Valley have increased 2% from June 2023. Nationally, economists are forecasting on average a 2.8% home price appreciation over 2023. As long as we are in an undersupply of listings as compared to buyer demand, there will continue to be home price appreciation. It’s the law of supply and demand. This is good news for homeowners who continue to build equity, and for buyers purchasing. It does continue the affordability challenge for some.

Source: Keeping Current Matters

Home Sales Moderate

In Oro Valley, home sales were down year to date 21% from same time 2023. Some of that can be attributed to higher mortgage rates, home prices. and also a lack of growth in new for sale inventory in Oro Valley. We expect that home sales will continue to moderate until we see an improvement in inflation and a downtrend in mortgage rates. Nationally, economists expect that home sales in 2024 will, on average, be about the same as 2023.

Mortgage Rates Forecast to Decline

Most economists forecast that mortgage rates will start to decline in the fourth quarter of this year, predicated on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will likely start reducing rates before the end of 2024. If the Fed continues with additional rate cuts into 2025, we may see further reductions in mortgage rates which should spur increased activity from both buyers and sellers.

Source: Keeping Current Matters

Homes for Sale Inventory Undersupplied

The Oro Valley inventory of homes for sale in June 2024 was 55% above June 2023. The number of new listings in Oro Valley year to date was only 2% higher than 2023. The lack of growth in new listings and the relative nature of listings as compared to buyer demand means that Oro Valley continues to be undersupplied.

As of June 2024, there were 3.2 months supply of inventory available. 5-6 months is generally considered a balanced market, between buyer demand and available homes for sale. Anything under that number is considered a seller’s market, and that is where Oro Valley sits today.

Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ on 07/24/2024 using TrendGraphix software. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

Impact of an Election Year?

If you have been wondering if Presidential elections have any impact on the housing market, data shows home sales slow in November but quickly bounce back and rise the following year. Prices usually keep climbing. And mortgage rates typically come down slightly.

Source: Keeping Current Matters

In summary, we can say that the real estate market conditions we experienced in the first half of 2024 will likely continue through the balance of this year. That being said, market conditions can vary greatly by price point or neighborhood so it is always a good idea to check with your local Realtor, like us, for the most accurate information.